Legum’s New Line

With the details of the final stimulus package finalized and expected to be signed by the President within days, the impact of the legislation on Maryland is coming into focus. Yesterday, the White House estimated the package would create 66,000 jobs in Maryland.

The Maryland Gazette has the breakdown of the approximately $3.3 billion of direct financial assistance to the state:

-$1 billion for education, including $400 million that will go toward the counties for Title 1

-$1 billion plus for Medicaid, replacing state money budgeted for the program. In essence, it’s $1 billion into the state’s general fund

-$800 million for infrastructure

-$600 million for school modernization

Gov. O’Malley said yesterday that the stimulus package may allow Maryland to avoid the 700 layoffs that were included in his 2010 budget.

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Maryland is counting on a robust federal stimulus package to avoid painful cuts to critical services and balance the state budget during a severe economic downturn. Meanwhile, RNC Chairman Michael Steele and local Republican bloggers are aggressively pushing the notion that Americans oppose the President Obama’s $800 billion stimulus package.

The evidence cited is a poll by Rasmussen which found that 37% of Americans supported and 43% of Americans opposed the stimulus package. With an error margin of 3%, the poll essentially shows the public equally split.

More importantly, the Rasmussen poll is at odds with every other major public poll taken in recent days, all of which show that Americans support the stimulus package by a substantial margin:

CNN (2/7-2/8): “As you may know, the U.S. Senate is expected to vote on a bill that would attempt to stimulate the economy by increasing federal government spending and cutting taxes at a total cost to the government of about eight hundred billion dollars. Based on what you have read or heard about this, do you favor or oppose the bill that the Senate is expected to vote on?”

Favor: 54%
Oppose: 45%

Pew (2/4-2/8): “From what you’ve read and heard, do you think this [stimulus plan being proposed by President Obama that may cost about $800 billion] is a good idea or a bad idea?”

Good idea: 51%
Bad idea: 34%

CBS (2/2-2/4): “Would you approve or disapprove of the federal government passing an economic stimulus bill costing more than 800 billion dollars in order to try to help the economy?”

Approve: 51
Disapprove: 39

Gallup: (2/4): “As you may know, Congress is considering a new economic stimulus package of at least 800 billion dollars. Do you favor or oppose Congress passing this legislation?”

Favor: 52
Oppose: 38

You can keep track of the latest polling on the stimulus package at PollingReport.com.

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P. Kenneth Burns of Maryland Politics Today wrote the following today about the Martin O’Malley’s budget:

While Governor Robert Ehrlich (R) started to hold the line on fiscal responsibility, the budget grew, but slowly. Since Governor O’Malley has been in office, the operating budget has ballooned to two digits.

Actually, as the Baltimore Sun recently reported, the budget O’Malley proposed this year isn’t much bigger than the last budget Ehrlich proposed:

O’Malley is proposing a general fund (the part of the budget that is funded by state tax dollars) of $14.4 billion. That’s 1.3 percent less than last year’s budget of $14.6 billion and even a bit smaller than the budget from the year before. In fact, it’s only about $250 million more than Ehrlich’s last budget.

The $250 million increase in O’Malley’s budget is a less than 2% increase from the budget Ehrlich proposed three years ago. I’m not exactly sure what the phrase “ballooned to two digits” means, but it’s clearly inaccurate.

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At an afternoon press conference, Gov. Martin O’Malley officially unveiled his state budget. For the first time in history, general revenue spending will decline. From the release:

Governor O’Malley continued, “This budget is, by necessity, painfully lean. We were forced to cut or level-fund many worthy programs that are important to the future of our State. But because they are important to our State we worked hard to protect these programs and hold them harmless this year.

“At the same time, we are not willing to abandon the important progress we’ve achieved for our families these past two years, including the progress that led Education Week to rank our public school system #1 in America just a week ago. Nor are we willing to turn our back on our workforce and Maryland families who are struggling in this difficult economy to make ends meet.”

The priorities in this year’s budget are clearly education and programs that directly provide economic support to families. Spending for higher education, K-12 education and social services is increased, although not dramatically.

Meanwhile, in what will surely be a disappointment for many, spending for natural resources and the environment received a significant overall cut. It is unwelcome news, particularly in light of data indicating that the 25 year effort to save the Chesapeake Bay is failing.

Transportation funding is also cut. Perhaps the federal stimulus package can help in this area.

You can read the Department of Management and Budget’s budget highlights document here. (Warning: It’s 200 pages). Below is a four page document released by the governor’s office that features charts and other details that explain the budget.

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Maryland Politics has important new details about this year’s state budget:

Spending will actually decline next year. O’Malley is proposing a general fund (the part of the budget that is funded by state tax dollars) of $14.4 billion. That’s 1.3 percent less than last year’s budget of $14.6 billion and even a bit smaller than the budget from the year before. In fact, it’s only about $250 million more than Ehrlich’s last budget. That’s pretty remarkable; given spending on education, Medicaid and other formula-driven programs, state government spending pretty much always goes up. In fact, spending has never declined in the last 25 years…

K-12 education funding takes a hit after years of rapid growth as a result of the Thornton formula. But spending on the University System of Maryland increases enough to maintain a tuition freeze…

O’Malley resolves a $400 million shortfall in the current year budget through $208 million in cuts and $619 million in fund transfers, which also provides some cash to help the state get through 2010.

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The first details of the state budget, to be introduced by O’Malley at 1:30PM, have started to leak out. Senate President Mike Miller, who has been briefed on the budget the Governor’s office, just revealed that O’Malley will propose laying off 700 state workers. Previously, O’Malley indicted his budget would include layoffs, but refused to say exactly how many.

Miller also added that he may introduce legislation shifting “shifting the cost of teacher pensions from the state to the counties,” even though it’s not included in O’Malley’s budget.

UPDATE: The budget will also include a freeze on state tuition for the fourth straight year.

UPDATE II: The budget assumes Maryland will get $350 million from the proposed federal surplus.

Check back with the New Line throughout the day for news and analysis of the Maryland budget.

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On Wednesday, Gov. O’Malley announced that, as a result of the $1.9 billion state deficit, substantial layoffs, in the range of 500 to 1000, would be included in the budget he submits next week to the general assembly.

The proposal was met with substantial criticism, notably from Senate President Mike Miller. Today on WYPR, O’Malley softened his position a bit, saying that the federal stimulus package proposed by Barack Obama may ultimately make the layoffs unnecessary.

You can listen to the clip of O’Malley HERE.

The Governor will officially introduce his budget on Wednesday.

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The New Line has obtained a report just issued by the Department of Legislative Services that analyzes and projects the impact of the national recession on Maryland. It’s not a pretty picture. Among the low-lights:

– Employment will fall 2% in Maryland in 2009 and grow by a meager 0.1% in 2010.

– At current revenue levels, the budget deficit will persist through at least Fiscal Year 2012.

– The dramatic decline in vehicle sales and lower vehicle miles traveled will vastly reduce the capital available for transportation projects.

You can read the whole report below:

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The dividing lines are drawn on the effort to close the state’s $1.9 billion budget gap. On one side is Governor O’Malley, who favors a package of cuts that includes up to 1000 layoffs of state workers.

On the otherside is Senate President Mike Miller (D-Calvert) who opposes O’Malley’s planned layoffs and is not being shy about it:

Speaking to the Maryland Economic Development Association Wednesday, Miller, D-Calvert, said that he “took the governor to task” about the possibility of layoffs at a breakfast meeting earlier in the day.

“I just felt that our state employees had suffered enough,” Miller said later, citing a furlough plan and a lack of pay increases. “When you come to state employment, you hope for job security.”

Miller proposes “shifting some of the financial burden to the county level,” noting that 40% of the state budget supports local government. Miller’s plan, of course, is vehemently opposes by county executives, including Anne Arundel County’s John Leopold.

Worth remembering: this summer, O’Malley declined to appoint Miller’s son as a District Court Judge in Anne Arundel County.

Who will come out on top? We should find out in the next 90 days.

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With the state struggling to close a nearly $2 billion budget deficit, there’s not much money to go around for new initiatives. But there are plenty of worthwhile proposals that don’t carry a big price tag for the state.

For example, legislation by Del. Doyle Niemann (D-Prince George’s) “would require chain restaurants to post calorie counts for their menu items.” Similar proposals were recently passed into law in Philadelphia, New York City and California. The reason is simple: when nutritional information is available people eat health food more, eat unhealthy food less and restaurants provide better options. Scientific studies have confirmed this:

[W]hen favorable nutrition information was presented on restaurant menus, consumers had more favorable attitudes towards the items and higher purchase intentions. When unfavorable nutrition information was presented, there was a negative influence on product attitudes and purchase
intentions. … [I]f restaurants were required to disclose nutrition information, consumers would be more likely to choose more healthful menu items. In addition, requiring restaurants to provide nutrition information may encourage restaurants to improve the healthfulness of their menu options.

Proposals like Del. Niemann’s are supported by a wide range of groups including the American Cancer Society, the American Diabetes Association., and American Medical Association. Incidently, recent public opinion polls have found that menu labeling is supported by about 80% of Americans.

More resources and information on menu labeling here.

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